What is Stagflation?

Stagflation refers to the rare combination of high inflation, slow economic growth, and high unemployment. In a typical business cycle, inflation rises during periods of strong growth and falls during recessions when unemployment spikes. But in the 1970s, the U.S. experienced the worst of both worlds – soaring prices coupled with a stagnant economy and rising joblessness.

The unemployment rate significantly rose during the mid 1970’s:

While inflation data rapidly rose as well:

Several factors fueled the stagflationary environment:
– Excessive government spending on the Vietnam War and social programs
– Easy monetary policy and the end of the gold standard in 1971
– Oil price shocks in 1973 and 1979 engineered by OPEC
– Declining productivity growth

Inflation peaked at over 14% in 1980. The unemployment rate reached nearly 11% in the 1981-82 recession. And real GDP growth averaged a meager 3.2% for the decade, well below the 4.3% pace of the 1960s.

Stock Market Performance During Stagflation

Overall, the 1970s was a lost decade for stock investors. The S&P 500 eked out nominal gains of just 17% for the 10-year period, far below the rate of inflation. In real (inflation-adjusted) terms, the S&P 500 lost nearly 50% of its value during the 1970s.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened the decade at 809 and closed 1979 at just 839, almost no gain. Steep bear markets in 1973-74 and 1977 took a heavy toll. Corporate earnings grew at a 9% annual clip in the 70s, but the price-to-earnings multiple investors were willing to pay for those profits was cut in half by the end of the decade.

However, some sectors and investment classes did manage to outperform in the stagflationary environment:

Energy Stocks
With oil prices spiking over 1000% from $3 per barrel to $40 during the decade, energy was by far the best-performing stock market sector. Oil & gas companies saw earnings soar. Exxon, for example, grew profits at a 17% annual rate in the 1970s.

Exxon 1970-1979. Source: Macrotrends

Precious Metals and Mining
Gold was the single best-performing asset class of the 1970s, rising from $35 an ounce to over $800, a 2200% gain. Silver and other precious metals also posted huge returns as investors sought inflation hedges.

The Price of Gold Soared During the 1970s. Source: Macrotrends

Gold mining stocks posted huge returns during this time. Companies involved in gold, silver, and copper extraction saw their valuations rise dramatically.

Real Estate
Real estate investment trusts (REITs) and direct property ownership provided a partial inflation hedge, with rental prices and property values rising along with the general price level. Farmland values rose at a 14% annual rate. Residential real estate was more of a mixed bag, with some regions like California seeing huge gains while others stagnated under rent controls.

Commodities
Besides precious metals, a wide range of commodities posted big gains in the 1970s:
– Oil prices rose over 1000%
– Agricultural goods like wheat, corn and soybeans more than tripled
– Lumber prices increased fivefold
– Copper and other industrial metals also saw large gains[

Value Stocks & Defensive Sectors

Source: JPMorgan

Among equities, cheaper-value stocks outperformed higher-priced growth stocks. Defensive sectors like consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities held up better than economically-sensitive areas like autos, steel, and housing. Blue-chip dividend payers were favored for their income in an era of paltry stock market gains.

Consumer staples stocks like General Foods (which later became Kraft and then Mondelez and Kraft Heinz) held up better than the broader market. Defensive sectors like consumer staples, healthcare and utilities outperformed as investors favored companies with pricing power that could maintain profit margins even with high inflation

Losers of the 1970s

While commodities and hard assets thrived, financial assets broadly struggled during the stagflationary 70s:

Bonds

Fixed income investors suffered as rising interest rates caused bond prices to plummet. 10-year Treasury yields soared from around 6% in 1970 to over 15% by 1981 as the Federal Reserve belatedly raised rates to combat inflation. In 1979 alone, long-term government bonds lost 8.6%.

Growth Stocks
High-flying growth stocks sporting lofty price-to-earnings ratios were hit hard as soaring inflation and interest rates compressed valuations. The “Nifty Fifty” group of premier growth stocks like Xerox, IBM, and Polaroid that had led the bull market of the 1960s plunged during the 1973-74 bear market. Many former darlings saw their stock prices cut 60-90%.

Sectors that struggled during this time included:

• Financials, as rising interest rates caused bond prices to plummet
• Consumer discretionary stocks, as economically-sensitive areas like autos and housing were hit by the combination of high inflation and slow growth
• Technology and growth stocks broadly underperformed as soaring inflation and interest rates compressed their rich valuations

Autos, Housing and Consumer Discretionary

Source: Fred, Riverbend Investment Management

Economically-sensitive sectors were among the worst hit in the stagflationary environment. Auto sales slumped as rising gas prices and interest rates made vehicles unaffordable for many households. Housing starts fell nearly 50% from 1972-1982 as mortgage rates climbed to 18%. Consumer discretionary stocks broadly underperformed as stagflation curtailed household spending.

Lessons for Today’s Investors

While no two periods of history ever perfectly rhyme, the stagflationary 1970s offer some important takeaways for investors confronting high inflation and slowing growth today:

1. Diversify beyond stocks and bonds. Equities and fixed income both struggled during the 1970s. Exposure to real assets like commodities, real estate, and precious metals provided an important bulwark.

2. Emphasize value and quality. Richly-valued growth stocks are vulnerable to valuation compression as inflation and interest rates rise. Cheaper value stocks and high-quality blue chips tend to fare better.

3. Tilt toward inflation beneficiaries. Sectors with direct exposure to rising commodity prices (energy, mining, agriculture) or that demonstrate strong pricing power (consumer staples, healthcare) have outperformed during stagflationary periods.

4. Tactical investment strategies may provide opportunities during flat, yet volatile market cycles.

While the future is always uncertain, the historical experience of the 1970s provides a useful roadmap for navigating the potentially stagflationary environment ahead.

Sources:
[1] https://www.schroders.com/en-us/us/individual/insights/how-does-stagflation-impact-investment-returns/
[2] https://www.fool.com/terms/s/stagflation/
[3] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stagflation.asp
[4] https://www.winvesta.in/blog/what-happens-to-the-markets-during-stagflation
[5] https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/stagflation/
[6] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/1970-stagflation.asp
[7] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/stagflation.asp
[8] https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/tdvcb2/stagflation_in_the_1970s_stagflation_in_the_in/
[9] https://willowdaleequity.com/blog/what-assets-do-well-in-stagflation/
[10] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stagflation-definition-10-best-stagflation-183011442.html
[11] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stagflation-definition-11-best-stagflation-174922577.html
[12] https://www.gsam.com/content/gsam/us/en/institutions/market-insights/gsam-connect/2022/what-investors-can-do-stagflation-risk.html
[13] https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/want-to-beat-stagflation-invest-like-its-the-1970s
[14] https://www.schroders.com/en-ch/ch/professional/insights/inflation-back-to-the-1970s/
[15] https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/what-worked-and-didnt-work-during-1970s-stagflation-27738/
[16] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-should-still-brace-for-70s-style-stagflation-warn-strategists-39dc3675
[17] https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/604318/5-superb-stocks-to-shield-against-stagflation
[18] https://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/RPS_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000523476/Investing_during_Stagflation:_What_happened_in_the.pdf

Volatility is a crucial concept that every investor needs to know, as it measures the degree of variation in the price of a security over time. Understanding and managing volatility is essential to minimize risk and optimize portfolios.

Volatility, as measured by the VIX (Volatility Index), can provide insights into market sentiment. Changes in volatility can serve as warning signs for potential trend reversals in individual stocks as well.  Indicators, like the Average True Range (ATR) and Wilder’s Volatility Stop Loss, can help identify significant changes in volatility that may signal a shift a change in trend and help limit portfolio losses.

VIX: A Barometer of Market Fear

The VIX, often referred to as the “fear index,” is a widely used measure of market volatility. It is calculated based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options and provides a gauge of expected market volatility over the next 30 days.

When the VIX rises, it indicates increased fear and uncertainty among market participants, often coinciding with market downturns or periods of heightened risk aversion. During times of market stress, such as economic crises, geopolitical events, or unexpected news, the VIX tends to spike, reflecting the elevated levels of fear and uncertainty in the market.

For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, the VIX reached an all-time high of 89.53 on October 24, 2008, as investors grappled with the collapse of major financial institutions and the ensuing market turmoil.

Investors can use the VIX as a tool to assess the overall market sentiment and adjust their risk management strategies accordingly. When the VIX is rising, it may be prudent to adopt a more defensive approach, such as reducing exposure to risky assets or implementing hedging strategies to protect against potential market downturns.

Volatility as a Warning Sign for Trend Reversals

While the VIX provides a broad measure of market volatility, changes in volatility at the individual stock level can also offer valuable insights. A sudden increase in volatility can often precede a trend reversal, particularly when the stock has been in a prolonged upward trend.

One way to measure volatility at the stock level is through the use of the Average True Range (ATR) indicator. ATR measures the average range between the high and low prices of a stock over a specified period, typically 14 days.

Source: Investopedia

A significant increase in ATR, such as a reading that is two to three times the standard deviation or greater, can indicate a heightened level of volatility and potentially signal an impending trend reversal.

For example, let’s consider the case of XYZ stock, which has been in a steady uptrend for several months. If the ATR suddenly spikes to a level that is three times its average value, it could be a warning sign that the upward momentum is losing steam and a reversal may be on the horizon. Investors holding XYZ stock may want to consider tightening their stop-loss orders or reducing their position size to manage risk in case of a potential trend reversal.

Another useful tool for identifying changes in volatility is Wilder’s Volatility Stop Loss. Developed by J. Welles Wilder, this indicator calculates a stop-loss level based on the ATR and a multiplier. When the stock price closes below the Wilder’s Volatility Stop Loss level, it suggests that the upward trend may be losing momentum and a reversal could be imminent.

To illustrate the use of Wilder’s Volatility Stop Loss, let’s revisit the example of XYZ stock. Suppose the current price of XYZ is $100, and the ATR is $2. Using a multiplier of 3, the Wilder’s Volatility Stop Loss would be calculated as follows:

Wilder’s Volatility Stop Loss = Current Price – (ATR * Multiplier)
= $100 – ($2 * 3)
= $94

If XYZ stock closes below $94, it would trigger a sell signal based on Wilder’s Volatility Stop Loss, indicating that the upward trend may be coming to an end and it’s time to exit the position or implement risk management strategies.

Incorporating Volatility to Improve Risk Management Strategies

By monitoring changes in volatility, both at the market level through the VIX and at the individual stock level using indicators like ATR and Wilder’s Volatility Stop Loss, investors can enhance their risk management strategies. When volatility rises significantly, it may be prudent to take the following actions:

1. Tighten Stop Losses: As volatility increases, the likelihood of sharp price movements also rises. By adjusting stop-loss levels based on volatility indicators, investors can limit their potential losses and protect their capital. For example, if the ATR of a stock doubles, investors may consider moving their stop-loss orders closer to the current price to account for the increased volatility.
2. Reduce Position Sizes: During periods of heightened volatility, it may be wise to reduce the size of individual positions to mitigate the impact of potential price swings on the overall portfolio. By allocating a smaller portion of the portfolio to each position, investors can limit their exposure to any single stock that may experience significant volatility.
3. Diversify Holdings: Spreading investments across different sectors, asset classes, and geographies can help reduce the overall portfolio volatility and minimize the impact of any single stock or sector experiencing increased volatility. By maintaining a well-diversified portfolio, investors can potentially offset losses in one area with gains in another, thereby reducing the overall risk.
4. Consider Hedging Strategies: Implementing hedging strategies, such as buying put options or using inverse ETFs, can provide downside protection during volatile market conditions. These strategies can help mitigate losses in the event of a market downturn or a significant decline in individual stock prices.

Real-World Examples:

1. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the VIX reached a peak of 82.69 on March 16, 2020, as markets grappled with the economic fallout of the global health crisis. Investors who recognized the heightened volatility and adjusted their portfolios accordingly, such as by reducing exposure to risky assets or implementing hedging strategies, were better positioned to weather the market turbulence.
2. In the case of Tesla (TSLA), its stock experienced a significant increase in late 2020, rising from around $132 in November to over $300 in January 2021. This surge in price preceded a sharp decline in the stock price, with TSLA dropping approximately 40%. Investors who used Wilder’s Voaltatilty Stop Loss could have used it as a warning sign of potential trend reversal and taken steps to manage their risk, such as tightening stop-loss orders or reducing their position size.

Volatility is a critical factor to consider when managing risk in the stock market. By understanding how the VIX reflects market fear and how changes in volatility at the individual stock level can signal potential trend reversals, investors can make more informed decisions and adjust their risk management strategies accordingly.

Utilizing indicators like ATR and Wilder’s Volatility Stop Loss can help identify significant changes in volatility that may warrant action, such as tightening stop losses, reducing position sizes, diversifying holdings, or implementing hedging strategies.

Real-world examples, such as the market volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic and the case of Tesla stock, demonstrate the importance of monitoring volatility and adapting risk management strategies accordingly. By incorporating volatility analysis into their investment approach, investors can navigate market uncertainties with greater confidence and potentially enhance their overall risk-adjusted returns.

Sources:

1. Wilder, W. (1978). New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Trend Research.
2. “VIX – CBOE Volatility Index.” CBOE, https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/.
3. “Understanding the VIX: What It Is, How It Works.” Investopedia, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp.
4. “VIX Historical Price Data.” Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history?p=%5EVIX.
5. “Average True Range (ATR).” Investopedia, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/atr.asp.
6. “VIX Surges to Record High as Stocks Plunge Amid Global Recession Fears.” CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/vix-surges-to-record-high-as-stocks-plunge-amid-global-recession-fears.html.
7. “Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Historical Volatility.” Macroaxis, https://www.macroaxis.com/volatility/TSLA/Tesla.
8. “Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Historical Prices & Data.” Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA.
9) “Wilder Volatility Stop” https://www.optuma.com/kb/optuma/tools/volatility/wilder-volatility-stop

Featured Image: Image by macro vector on Freepik

When constructing an investment model, risk management is a critical aspect of portfolio construction and performance evaluation.

While traditional measures like standard deviation and variance have been a favorite risk gauge by many investors, the Ulcer Index (UI) — a less conventional but highly insightful metric — offers a unique perspective by focusing specifically on downside risk.

How the Ulcer Index Works

Developed by Peter Martin and Byron McCann in the 1980s, the Ulcer Index quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment’s value (Martin & McCann, 1989).

Unlike other risk measures that consider overall volatility, the Ulcer Index specifically focuses on the negative movements of an asset’s price.

To calculate the Ulcer Index, we must first identify the drawdowns, which are the peaks-to-trough declines in the investment’s value.

The Index then squares these percentage drawdowns and averages them over a specific period, and the square root of this average gives the Ulcer Index value.

• Price_i is the price on day i
• N is the length of time (measured in days)
• maxprice is the most recent high
• R_i is the drawdown from the previous high

A higher Ulcer Index indicates a security or portfolio that has experienced large and/or lengthy drawdowns, signaling higher downside risk.

The Ulcer Index in Action

Consider an investor comparing two exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Fund A has an Ulcer Index of 14.63, while Fund B has an Ulcer Index of 25.17.

Despite a lower Ulcer Index, Fund A has outperformed Fund B due to having smaller periods of decline compared to Fund B, indicating that Fund A could improve portfolio performance while reducing risk.

Source: FastTrack

Benefits of Using the Ulcer Index in Portfolio Construction

1) Enhanced Risk Management: The Ulcer Index allows investors to quantify and manage the downside risk in their portfolios effectively. It is particularly useful in turbulent market conditions where traditional volatility measures might not fully capture the risk of significant losses.

2) Informed Asset Allocation: By using the Ulcer Index, investors can make more informed decisions about asset allocation. For instance, incorporating assets with lower Ulcer Index values can reduce the overall portfolio’s risk of substantial drawdowns.

3) Risk-Adjusted Performance Evaluation: The Ulcer Index complements other performance metrics like the Sharpe Ratio, providing a more comprehensive view of a portfolio’s risk-adjusted performance. It is especially beneficial for comparing investments with similar returns but differing risk profiles.

4) Alignment with Investor Risk Tolerance: The Ulcer Index can help align investment choices with an investor’s risk tolerance. Those particularly sensitive to losses may prefer investments with lower Ulcer Index values.

Academic Research on the Ulcer Index

Managing risk can help improve overall portfolio performance

Academic research has provided valuable insights into the benefits of the Ulcer Index.

A study by Chekhlov, Uryasev, and Zabarankin (2005) emphasized the importance of focusing on downside risk and how the Ulcer Index could be a more representative tool for capturing this risk compared to standard deviation.

This aligns with the principles of behavioral finance, where investors are often more concerned about potential losses than equivalent gains (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979).

In portfolio optimization research, the Ulcer Index has been used as a constraint or objective to construct portfolios that not only have optimal returns, but also minimal potential for significant drawdowns (Post & Van Vliet, 2006).

This approach is particularly relevant in the construction of retirement portfolios, where preserving capital is often more critical than achieving high returns.

The Ulcer Index: An Important Tool in an Investor’s Toolbox

The Ulcer Index stands out as a specialized tool in the investor’s arsenal, particularly valuable for its focus on downside risk.

While not a standalone solution, it complements other risk and performance measures, offering a nuanced perspective on investment risk.

For investors and financial professionals alike, understanding and applying the Ulcer Index can lead to more robust portfolio construction and a better alignment with investment goals and risk tolerance.

References

• Martin, P. & McCann, B. (1989). “The Investor’s Guide to Fidelity Funds”. Wiley.
• Chekhlov, A., Uryasev, S., & Zabarankin, M. (2005). “Drawdown Measure in Portfolio Optimization”. International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance.
• Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk”. Econometrica.
• Post, G. & Van Vliet, P. (2006). “Downside Risk and Empirical Asset Pricing”. Journal of Banking & Finance.

Is Gold a Good Hedge Against Inflation?

Gold has historically been viewed as a reliable store of value and a hedge against inflation. Throughout time, investors have turned to gold during economic upheavals, political unrest, and times of inflation. But how accurate is this belief? Is gold genuinely a good inflation hedge?

Understanding Inflation

Before discussing gold’s relationship with inflation, it’s essential to have a clear understanding of what inflation is.

At its core, inflation refers to the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, subsequently eroding purchasing power. Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, aim to maintain inflation at a stable rate, believing it’s crucial for economic growth.

The Theoretical Case for Gold as an Inflation Hedge

Proponents argue that gold serves as a hedge against inflation due to:

Limited Supply: Unlike fiat currencies, which central banks can print in unlimited quantities, the supply of gold is relatively fixed. This inherent scarcity can provide protection against currency devaluation.

Historical Precedent: Gold has been a form of currency for centuries, suggesting it retains its value over long periods.

Tangible Asset: Unlike stocks or bonds, gold is a tangible asset. Physical gold doesn’t rely on a third party’s performance or promises, potentially offering security during uncertain economic times.

Is Gold a Good Hedge Against Inflation?

Let’s examine some specific periods when inflation spiked to see how gold performed:

1970s U.S. Inflation Crisis

The 1970s in the U.S. witnessed an alarming rate of inflation, peaking at over 13% in 1979 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2020).

During this decade, the price of gold skyrocketed from $35 per ounce in 1971 to $850 in 1980, not adjusted for inflation (World Gold Council, 2021). This represents a remarkable increase and provides a strong case for gold as an inflation hedge.

2008 Financial Crisis

Contrastingly, the 2008 financial crisis, although not strictly an inflationary period, was marked by expansive monetary policies and quantitative easing, leading to anticipated inflationary pressures. Gold, sensing these undercurrents, appreciated significantly, reinforcing its safe-haven status.

Hyperinflation in History

Hyperinflation periods provide extreme cases to assess gold’s protection. In the Weimar Republic’s hyperinflation in the 1920s, gold retained its value, while the German mark became worthless (Fergusson, A. 1975. When Money Dies). More recently, during Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation crisis in the late 2000s, gold also proved its worth as local currencies collapsed.

Academic Research on Gold and Inflation

Several academic studies have delved into the relationship between gold and inflation:

1) The World Gold Council (2011) found a positive correlation between gold and U.S. inflation, particularly during extreme inflationary environments. This correlation was stronger in the short term (less than a year) but weakened over longer periods (World Gold Council, 2011).

2) Baur and Lucey (2010) in their study titled “Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds, and Gold,” found that gold can act as both an inflation hedge and a safe haven in extreme market conditions, but its efficacy can vary depending on the time frame and geographical region (Baur, D.G., & Lucey, B.M., 2010).

Source: “Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds, and Gold”

3) Ghosh, Levin, Macmillan, and Wright (2004) in their research found a weak relationship between gold returns and inflation for the U.S. However, when the researchers expanded the study globally, gold demonstrated stronger inflation-hedging properties in countries like the UK and Japan (Ghosh, D., Levin, E.J., Macmillan, P., & Wright, R.E., 2004).

Source: “Gold as an Inflation Hedge”

Caveats

While historical performance and some academic research support gold’s role as an inflation hedge, there are important considerations:

Holding Costs: Unlike stocks or bonds that might pay dividends or interest, gold has associated storage and insurance costs.

Volatility: Gold prices can be volatile, influenced by factors beyond just inflation, such as geopolitical events, interest rates, and global economic conditions.

No Universal Agreement: As seen in the academic studies, there isn’t a unanimous agreement on gold’s efficacy as an inflation hedge across all scenarios.

Conclusion

So, is gold a good hedge against inflation?

Gold has historically performed well during periods of high inflation, and many investors incorporate it into their portfolios for diversification and as a potential hedge against inflationary pressures.

However, its role as an inflation hedge isn’t unequivocal and may vary based on time frames, geographical regions, and specific economic conditions. Like all investments, due diligence, continuous research, and a well-considered strategy are crucial when considering gold in a portfolio.

John Rothe, CMT

References

Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2020). Consumer Price Index Data from 1913 to 2020.

World Gold Council. (2021). Gold Investor: Risk management and capital preservation.

Fergusson, A. (1975). When Money Dies. Kimble Mead.

World Gold Council. (2011). Gold as a strategic asset for UK investors.

Baur, D.G., & Lucey, B.M. (2010). Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds, and Gold. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(8), 1886-1898.

Ghosh, D., Levin, E.J., Macmillan, P., & Wright, R.E. (2004). Gold as an Inflation Hedge? Studies in Economics and Finance, 22(1), 1-25.