Investment Research from John Rothe, CMT
Is International Finally Ready to Shine?
Today international stocks currently trade at more attractive valuations than U.S. stocks after a decade of underperformance. U.S. stocks trade at a higher next 12-month price-to-earnings multiple than international stocks. In addition, U.S. stocks trade more expensive against their historical valuation range, as evidenced by the 10th to 90th percentile range of historical price-to-earnings multiples.
Is This Time Different?
While doing my daily chart review, I noticed an interesting change within the S&P 500 taking place. The S&P 500 is clearly still in a downtrend as marked by the red, downward trend line. But notice the MACD; in the past, the MACD had already formed a buy...
Stocks Trade Higher for a Second Consecutive Month
Monthly Market Summary The S&P 500 Index returned +5.6% during November, outperforming the Russell 2000 Index’s +2.2% return. Cyclical sectors outperformed during November, with Materials (+11.7%) and Industrials (+7.8%), the top two sectors. Energy (+1.3%) was...
Global Equity Update – Q4 2022
Consumers Turn to Credit Cards as Inflation Pressures Finances
This month’s charts examine the trend of increasing consumer credit usage. Figure 1 charts the amount of outstanding revolving consumer credit, and Figure 2 charts the year-over-year percentage growth of revolving credit. Revolving credit, such as a credit card,...
September’s Historical Trends
Historical lookback of returns during the month of September. 1950 to 2022(as of 9/12/2022)
The Myth of Missing the 10 Best Days in the Stock Market
One of the more "sticky" myths in the stock market is that of staying fully invested so you don't miss the best days. Charts like this are common among fans of buy and hold strategies: However, what charts like this fail to mention is that the best days often...
Recent Stock Market Volatility
After a quiet June, stock market volatility returned in August. The summer's counter-trend rally is over and investors are starting to watch some key support levels. A pullback to 38.2% or even 50% Fibonacci levels wouldn't surprise me as economic data is starting to...
US Economy: Declining Labor Productivity & Rising Labor Costs
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Housing Market Cools as Interest Rate Increases Impact Economy
The Covid-19 pandemic profoundly altered the U.S. housing market. Homeowners and renters reevaluated their housing needs and wants as they spent more time at home. At the same time, remote work set off a great migration as employees decided where they wanted to live...
John Rothe is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Riverbend Investment Management