Investment Research from John Rothe, CMT
Job Growth in the US Slows to a More Sustainable Pace
The latest job report shows a notable slowdown in U.S. job growth, with employers adding 187,000 jobs in July, slightly below economists’ forecast of 200,000 positions. However, there’s no need to worry as this indicates a shift towards a more sustainable pace, which still exceeds the pre-pandemic monthly average. Additionally, the July figure is slightly higher than June’s revised payroll gain of 185,000. In this article, we’ll explore what this means for the economy and the implications for investment decisions.
The Big Mac Index: Exploring Currency Valuation and Inflation
The Big Mac Index is an intriguing economic indicator that offers a unique perspective on the world’s currencies and purchasing power parity (PPP). Created by The Economist in 1986, it has since gained significant recognition as a tool for illustrating currency value comparisons.
Value at Risk (VaR): Uses and Controversies
Value at Risk (VaR) is a powerful tool in modern risk management. As a statistic, VaR accurately predicts the maximum potential losses within a defined time frame. This invaluable metric is widely embraced by financial institutions and commercial banks for investment analysis. With VaR, one can gauge the magnitude and probabilities of potential portfolio losses effectively. Risk managers rely on VaR to measure and maintain optimal risk exposure levels.
Navigating Different Types Of Momentum Indicators
Understanding the different types of momentum indicators, such as the MACD, RSI, Stochastics and On-Balance Volume (OBV), can help investors increase their trading success rate. This article examines the various indicators and provides examples.
Momentum Investing Research: Harnessing the Power of Market Trends
Momentum investing research has proven momentum strategies that involve purchasing stocks or other securities that have demonstrated high returns over the past three to twelve months while selling those that have had low returns.
This tactic has been leveraged by both professional investors and individual traders for many years, consistently outperforming the stock market. In this article, we will delve into the world of momentum investing research, exploring what it is, how it operates, and why it has been so successful.
How to Use Relative Rotation Graphs for Selecting the Best Sectors
Relative Rotation Graphs can provide early insight into which sectors are outperforming a particle index, which sectors are strengthening, and which may become leadership areas to focus on. Academic research has shown RRG charts can provide outperformance vs buy and hold investment strategies.
A Major, Long Term MACD Signal is Forming
The popular MACD indicator is nearing a monthly buy signal on the QQQ ETF. We take a look at the historical significance of this and what it may mean for the US stock market going forward.
Economic Headwinds Facing Investors
The stock market had a strong start to 2023, with the S&P 500 finishing January with nearly a 6% gain. However, that trend began to reverse, as investors started to weigh the impact of numerous economic changes and challenges – such as mixed inflation data, bank failures, and a continued shortage of workers.
Investors now need to pay attention to possible economic headwinds that can impact their portfolios.
White Paper: Using Volatility to Add Alpha and Control Portfolio Risk
Volatility is a well-known and widely-studied aspect of financial markets, and has been the focus of numerous academic and industry research efforts over the years. It is widely recognized that volatility can have a significant impact on investment portfolios, and as...
Value vs Growth: Is A Decade of Value Leadership Coming?
Since the November lows, the relationship between Growth and Value names has traded place. If we take a look at the relative strength comparison between S&P 500 Value and S&P 500 Growth, we can see that after the Tech Collapse in 2000-2001, Value stocks outperformed Growth stocks on a relative basis up until the Great Financial Crisis. After 2009, Value underperformed Growth — until the stock market lows in November 2022.